Who Will Win The Democratic Presidential Primaries?

The first real measure of the candidates for the democratic presidential was in the first democratic debate. The first Democratic Debate or as I would like to call it, “the Clinton-Sanders Debate,” took place on October 13, 2015 and the main question is “Who won the debate?” Proclaiming a tie would satisfy nobody especially those who would like a simplistic answer of either “Sanders or Clinton won.” There is no clear way to determine a winner, online polls like those on CNBC that show Sanders winning by a huge margin with 67% of the votes, but a poll by Garvis Marketing that surveyed 760 registered democrats, tells another story. They showed that more people saw Clinton in a favorable light as compared to Sanders (73% to 64%) and that more people thought Clinton won the debate than Sanders (62% to 30%).

In terms of performance in the debate, Mr. Avery (An AP Human Geography teacher) brilliantly said that “Clinton was the best politician” and that “Sanders was more emotional” in addition to that “we see what we want to see from the debate” which I agree. Clinton gave the more careful and political answers, while Sanders went for a stronger emotional aspect. In addition both sides won in different aspects, Clinton seemed stronger in gun control while Sanders had the edge in Wall Street.

The debate did more than to show the differences between Sanders and Clinton, it actually led to Chaffee, and Webb to drop out leaving only O’Malley, Clinton and Sanders much less than what the Republicans have running (three to eleven).

Despite the divided opinions of the debate, statistics from various sources such as the  Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show that Clinton is generally leading in the polls. In the Real Clear Politics data, it shows Clinton 22.3 points ahead of Sanders nationally, 24 points ahead in Iowa, 47.6 points ahead in South Carolina, 35.5 points ahead in Florida and only in New Hampshire is she actually 1.3 points behind Sanders. In the Huffington Post Pollster, it shows that Clinton has a 25.7 point lead over Sanders nationally. Polls all have a margin of error but general consistencies are telling of a general trend.

Reasons that I believe that Clinton is winning in the polls and as of now is poised to win the democratic nomination is because she has the name recognition, a larger pool of funds, and she doesn’t have the socialist label. In terms of name recognition she is extremely well known. Clinton is the current Secretary of State, her husband was a former president, she was a senator, and she has ran for president before in 2008. As for funding, Clinton has managed to raise about 30 million dollars compared to Sander’s 26 million. Lastly she doesn’t have the socialist label that could potentially hold back Sanders. I, myself, would not discriminate against a socialist but a gallop poll from 2010 showed that 58% of Americans have a negative perception of socialism, and a newer poll from 2015 show that about 50% of Americans would not vote for a socialist. These numbers may vary from group, for example 26% of Republicans would vote for a socialist while 59% of Democrats would vote for a socialist. But as a whole they seem to be against a socialist candidate like Sanders.

As of now, Clinton seems most likely to win the Democratic Nomination for president. However within a span of a few months, things could change and Sanders might end up winning.

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